SUCCESS LEAVES TRACES

COACH|WORK FROM HOME|INTERNET MONEY MAKING

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"The economic news has been dominated by gloom for several years now--huge layoffs by blue-chip companies like AT&T, bankruptcies and continual talk of a recession. But that's just one way of looking at the facts. Another way is to see an old economy fading and a bright, vigorous new one emerging.

"That's exactly what's occurring. The United States is going through a massive structural shift--and many economists, business analysts and corporate executives haven't figured this out. But the shift into a New Economy based on information technology is well underway," insists Nuala Beck, owner of management consulting firm Nuala Beck & Associates in Toronto.

"When I started my research, I was shocked to discover just how far along we are in making this shift--and I was also surprised to find how strong the U.S. economy fundamentally is. The old economy may be fading--and that's causing bad economic news about layoffs, plant closings and so forth--but double-digit growth is occurring in the New Economy," says Beck, author of Shifting Gears: Thriving in the New Economy (Harper Collins). "Entrepreneurs who want real growth will make it their business to position themselves in the New Economy--that's where the opportunity is."

Entrepreneur: What is the "New Economy"?

Nuala Beck: Did you know that more Americans make computers than cars? Consider this: Microsoft placed the largest single order for paper ever just to produce manuals for Windows 95. That's indicative of the magnitude of structural change that has and is going on as we switch into what I call the "New Economy." How we define the New Economy is very straightforward. There are four powerful engines of growth at work in it--computers and semiconductors; health and medical technology; communications and telecommunications; and scientific instrumentation. They are driving the New Economy in the same way automobiles, housing, retailing and machine tools drove the old economy. In today's economy, those four engines are powerful enough to create growth--not just in their own sectors but throughout the economy, as Microsoft's Windows 95 release did in paper, in retailing and so forth.

Entrepreneur: When did this New Economy emerge?

Beck: It began in dribs and drabs. The computer industry, for instance, was around in the 1950s, but it was too small to count. The New Economy became a factor in 1981. That's when, statistically, we saw the old industries that had been the drivers peaking out and the new industries growing larger than the old ones.

In 1981, the IBM PC moved onto desktops. Fax machines appeared in offices. From 1981 onward, we have been involved in a massive paradigm shift that has impacted every company, every industry, every individual. Many people--including experts--are still waiting for the new, technology-based economy to emerge. But it's already here and has been for at least a decade.

Entrepreneur: You've come up with a list of the 20 fastest-growing industries, which is dominated by computer-related businesses such as data processing, semiconductor manufacturing and computer professional services. Were there any real surprises when you created the list?

Beck: Quite a few. For instance, I was surprised by the size of the biotechnology and software industries--both now are very large. Usually, they are referred to as "emerging industries," but the fact is, they have already emerged. The computer industry didn't even rank among the top 20 manufacturing industries in 1972. But by 1992, it ranked fourth.

Another surprise is, credit unions rank as the 11th fastest-growing industry--which shows the extent of the changes taking place in financial services.

Entrepreneur: Even though we've entered into a New Economy, the older economy is still in place, right?

Beck: Of course. We will always have an auto industry, a housing industry, even steel manufacturing. But what's different is that they are no longer center stage. They are no longer the economy's drivers. Other industries are the ones that matter in terms of creating jobs and wealth in America today.

Entrepreneur: You say businesses and industries go through a predictable life cycle.

Beck: Every company and every industry goes through a five-stage life cycle that, on average, takes seven years. Phase one is growth--that's the wonderful stage where people want to buy what you're producing.
Today's examples include cellular phones and computer software. For a business, this is an exciting time. In this phase, if you fail, it won't be because there wasn't enough growth.

The next phase is inflation. This is when the industry is more mature. Fly-by-night competitors have been shaken out, and the industry as a whole is solid. But this is also the stage when management makes its biggest mistake--it believes its tree will grow to the sky, that there's no stopping growth. A current example is bed linens. How can a sheet sell for $200? It's beyond me, but designer sheets are priced that high.

The third phase is disinflation. That's when the sky's-the-limit philosophy that characterized the inflationary period ends, and management is shocked to discover they have substantial overcapacity in terms of their ability to supply the real demand in the economy. Under the sheer weight of this overcapacity, competition starts to bite, and profit margins slide dramatically. Industries in this phase include management consulting.

The fourth phase is deflation, where companies have given up on a lean-and-mean philosophy. Now they are just mean. Sales plunge and prices fall as smarter, tougher competitors emerge. The auto industry is in this phase.

The final phase is the trough--a depressed period of the life cycle when the business is at the bottom of the well, and it is bloodied, bruised, even numb. The insurance industry is in this phase--it has yet to catch up with the changing asset base of the New Economy, where intellectual property is of more importance than bricks and mortar. But the trough is both a curse and a blessing. It's a blessing in the sense that at least you've survived--and some of these companies may turn around.

Entrepreneur: How does a business in the trough turn around?

Beck: It boils down to doing one of three things, or a combination of them:

1. Introduce new products people really want. Chrysler did this with the minivan. Minivans were a new concept--and customers welcomed them. That gives an old business a new lease on life.

2. Develop new processes and technologies to revitalize the business

3. Find new markets--often abroad.

Entrepreneur: In Shifting Gears, you say a key measurement of a business is what you call its "Knowledge Ratio." Why is this important?

Beck: High-knowledge industries are the major source of job creation in America today and are also the major source of stock appreciation. Smart companies outperform their competition--it's as simple as that.

Entrepreneur: How would entrepreneurs discover their industry's Knowledge Ratio?

Beck: What's more relevant to the entrepreneur is how his or her company measures up against competitors.
If you are in metal working, for instance, it doesn't matter that that industry's knowledge base is lower than software's. What matters is, Are you smarter than your competitors?

Entrepreneur: How do you calculate your company's Knowledge Ratio?

Beck: Just sit down and add up your knowledge workers. The key is to distinguish between those who are paid to do and those who are paid to think. More specifically, knowledge workers fall into three broad categories:

Professionals such as lawyers, accountants and engineers.

Technical and scientific workers. This category is based less on the level of employees' formal education and more on their level of specialized skills. This is usually the largest component of your knowledge base.
Senior management. If they're not knowledge workers, you're in deep trouble.

Then divide the number of knowledge workers by your total work force. The result is your business's Knowledge Ratio. And, going forward, the company with the most knowledge workers will win.

Entrepreneur: How does the United States compare to its competitors in terms of knowledge workers?

Beck: We recently conducted a study where we compared the United States to Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan. The result surprised us. There is no question--the United States is at the head of the pack. Frankly, I puzzled over that because we all have read so much about the troubles in the U.S. educational system.

As we dug into this, we found that in the United States, training takes place in a different way than in Germany, where there are formal apprenticeship programs, or in Japan, where the schools do much of the training. In the United States, training often happens in the workplace, and, more specifically, it often happens like this: A company tells a vendor it will buy a new piece of sophisticated equipment only if the vendor trains the company's work force in how to use it. This system shifts training onto the backs of suppliers. So we have ended up with many workers functioning as knowledge workers, but they did not get there as a result of what we would think of as traditional schooling.

Entrepreneur: How strong is the U.S. economy fundamentally?

Beck: Stronger than you think. The recession is over and has been for several years. If you look at the leading indicators, the New Economy showed 14.6 percent real growth in December 1995. Nobody in his right mind would call that a sluggish economy.

When we calculated the U.S. balance of trade in the four key engines of the New Economy, we found that the United States is running a trade surplus in all the areas that count.

In the 1970s and early '80s, the U.S. economy was dominated by problems in its key industries, such as steel and automobiles, where the Japanese mounted stiff competition. It was popular to talk of the fading of the "American Empire." But take a second look, folks. Starting in 1986, the United States came roaring back. The Japanese are strong in automobiles, but the United States has a lock on semiconductors, which are what matter in the New Economy.

America's future is vastly better than most people realize, and those business owners who fail to prosper in the New Economy will have no one but themselves to blame."

Find out more at http://homebusiness-us.com .

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